House sales (low-rise detached, semi-detached, townhouse, etc.) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) in July 2022 were down 46% over the same month last year and represents a 20-year low for the month of July.
New house listings in July were unchanged compared to last year, but below typical new listing volumes for the month of July.
The number of houses available for sale (“active listings”) was up 80% when compared to the same month last year, but still 33% below pre-COVID levels in 2019.
The Months of Inventory ratio (MOI) looks at the number of homes available for sale in a given month divided by the number of homes that sold in that month. It answers the following question: If no more homes came on the market for sale, how long would it take for all the existing homes on the market to sell given the current level of demand?
The higher the MOI, the cooler the market is. A balanced market (a market where prices are neither rising nor falling) is one where MOI is between four to six months. The lower the MOI, the more rapidly we would expect prices to rise.
While the current level of MOI gives us clues into how competitive the market is on-the-ground today, the direction it is moving in also gives us some clues into where the market may be heading.
The MOI was just below 1 in March, but has increased quickly and ended July with 2.8 MOI. The fact that the MOI has been rising rapidly since March is a sign that the market is cooling down just as rapidly.
The share of houses selling for more than the owner’s asking price declined to 29% in July.
The average price for a house declined month-over-month to $1,285,222 in July 2022 and is well below the peak of $1,679,429 reached in February. The average price was down 1% when compared to the same month last year, the first time prices were down on a year-over-year basis since they began to decline this year.
The median house price in July was $1,125,000, down 2% over last year, and below the peak of $1,485,000 reached in February.
The median is calculated by ordering all the sale prices in a given month and then selecting the price that is in the midpoint of that list such that half of all home sales were above that price and half are below that price. Economists often prefer the median price over the average because it is less sensitive to big increases in the sale of high-end or low-end homes in a given month which can skew the average price.
Condo (condominiums, including condo apartments, condo townhouses, etc.) sales in the Toronto area in July 2022 were down 49% over last year and well below pre-COVID sales volumes for the month of July.
New condo listings were down 11% in July over last year and in line with historical listing volumes for the month of July.
The number of condos available for sale at the end of the month, or active listings, was up 34% over last year.
Condo inventory levels have been rising rapidly since March, reaching 3.6 months of inventory (MOI) in July.
The share of condos selling for over the asking price declined to 24% in July.
The average price for a condo in July fell to $738,930, down from the peak of $840,444 in March. The average price is up 7% over last year. The median price for a condo in July was $688,000, up 7% over last year, but down from $777,000 from the March peak.
Average prices were down over last year in Toronto, Durham and York but still up slightly in Halton and Peel. Sales were down significantly across all regions and inventory levels were well ahead of last year’s level.
While condo sales were down across the GTA, average prices continue to be up over last year in all five regions. Sales were down significantly across all regions and inventory levels were well ahead of last year’s level.
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